Russian Launch Site Mishap Shows Perilous State of Storied Space Program
Executive Summary
The once-mighty Russian space program, the heir to the Soviet legacy that put the first human in orbit, is facing an existential crisis. A recent catastrophic structural failure at the Baikonur Cosmodrome in November 2025—following closely on the heels of the humiliating RS-28 Sarmat ICBM explosion at Plesetsk in late 2024—has exposed the deep rot within Roscosmos. This analysis details the technical failures, infrastructure decay, leadership turmoil, and geopolitical isolation that have pushed a superpower’s space ambitions to the brink of collapse.
Part I: The Breaking Point – The Baikonur Incident (November 2025)
The Collapse of Site 31/6
On November 27, 2025, the Russian space agency Roscosmos celebrated the successful launch of Soyuz MS-28, sending two cosmonauts and one NASA astronaut to the International Space Station (ISS). The rocket ascended perfectly, piercing the grey Kazakh sky. But moments after the thunder died down, the ground reality shifted disastrously.
Post-launch inspections at Site 31/6—the only operational launch pad for crewed Soyuz missions since the retirement of the legendary "Gagarin’s Start" (Site 1)—revealed a catastrophic structural failure. The massive, movable service gantry, responsible for supporting the rocket and providing crew access, had suffered a critical collapse, tumbling partially into the flame trench.
While the crew was safely in orbit, the implications on the ground were devastating. With Site 1 dormant and under unfunded "renovation," and the new Vostochny Cosmodrome still not certified for crewed Soyuz flights, Russia effectively lost its only door to the cosmos for human spaceflight.
A Single Point of Failure
This incident was not a freak accident but a predicted outcome of aging infrastructure. Site 31/6, built in 1961, was never intended to bear the sole burden of Russia’s crewed program. For decades, it shared duties with Site 1. When funding dried up for the modernization of Site 1 in 2019, Roscosmos bet everything on the aging steel of Site 31. That bet has now failed.
Engineers estimate the repairs could take anywhere from six months to two years, leaving Russia in the humiliating position of being unable to launch its own cosmonauts, potentially forcing them to purchase seats on American SpaceX Dragon capsules—a geopolitical irony of the highest order.
Part II: The Shadow of the Crater – The Sarmat Disaster (September 2024)
To understand the Baikonur failure of 2025, one must look back to the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in September 2024, where the military side of Russia’s aerospace sector suffered its own humiliating blow.
The "Satan II" Explosion
The RS-28 Sarmat (NATO reporting name: Satan II) was touted by President Vladimir Putin as an "invincible" intercontinental ballistic missile, capable of piercing any defense. It was the crown jewel of Russia’s nuclear modernization.
However, satellite imagery from September 21, 2024, revealed a different story. A massive crater, approximately 60 meters (200 feet) wide, replaced the launch silo at the Yubileynaya site. The evidence suggested a catastrophic failure during fueling or immediately at ignition. The 200-ton liquid-fueled missile had essentially detonated in its tube, obliterating the test site and setting the surrounding forest ablaze.
Implications of the Crater
- Technological Regression: The failure signaled that Russia’s industrial base struggles to replicate, let alone improve upon, Soviet technologies from the 1970s.
- Quality Control Crisis: The Sarmat uses hypergolic liquid fuels, a technology Russia has mastered for decades. A failure of this magnitude implies a severe breakdown in quality assurance—likely due to corruption or skilled labor shortages.
- Deterrence Doubt: The inability to successfully test its flagship delivery system cast doubt on the reliability of its strategic deterrent.
Part III: The Systemic Rot – Why Rockets Are Falling
The mishaps at Baikonur and Plesetsk are merely symptoms of a deeper, systemic disease afflicting Roscosmos and the wider Russian aerospace defense industry.
1. The Brain Drain and "Negative Selection"
Since 2022, the Russian aerospace sector has faced an unprecedented flight of talent. Thousands of IT specialists, engineers, and physicists fled the country.
- Wage Disparity: A mid-level engineer at RKK Energia often earns less than a taxi driver in Moscow, driving young talent toward tech or banking.
- The "Yes-Man" Culture: Under previous leadership, a culture of loyalty over competence was entrenched, leading to the "normalization of deviance."
2. The Sanctions Stranglehold
Western sanctions imposed after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine have cut Russia off from high-grade microelectronics, precision tooling (German and Japanese CNC machines), and advanced CAD/CAM software licenses. Reports from 2024 indicated that Roscosmos had begun "cannibalizing" older satellites for parts.
3. Corruption as a Feature
Corruption in the Russian space sector is legendary. The construction of the Vostochny Cosmodrome was marred by the embezzlement of billions of rubles. The 2025 Baikonur collapse raises immediate questions: Were funds allocated for maintenance siphoned off?
Part IV: The Leadership Carousel
The chaotic management of Roscosmos has accelerated the decline.
- Dmitry Rogozin (2018–2022): Focused on bombastic threats rather than technical innovation. Alienated international partners.
- Yuri Borisov (2022–2025): Attempted pragmatism but was weakened by the Luna-25 failure.
- Dmitry Bakanov (Feb 2025–Present): Appointed to "stabilize" the sector, but the November 2025 Baikonur disaster proved that shuffling CEOs cannot fix structural decay.
Part V: The Civilian Collapse – Luna-25 and Beyond
The Luna-25 Heartbreak (August 2023)
Russia’s return to the Moon after 47 years ended in a crash. Luna-25 spun out of control and impacted the lunar surface. It was a loss of institutional memory—the new generation had to relearn everything from scratch. This stood in stark contrast to India’s successful Chandrayaan-3 landing just days later.
The Soyuz Coolant Leaks
Repeated coolant leaks on docked Soyuz spacecraft (2022-2023) raised alarms at NASA. While Roscosmos blamed micrometeoroids, statistical improbability suggested manufacturing defects in thermal control loops.
Part VI: Geopolitical Consequences
China's Vassal?
Russia has formally joined China's International Lunar Research Station (ILRS). However, Beijing is clearly in the driver's seat, providing funding and reliable rockets, while Russia provides "experience"—a commodity rapidly devaluing with every crash.
The End of ISS Diplomacy
With the Baikonur pad down, Russia is dependent on partners to keep its station segment alive. The dream of a sovereign Russian Orbital Service Station (ROSS), planned for 2027-2028, now looks like a fantasy.
Conclusion: A Star Falling
As of December 1, 2025, the Russian space program is not dead, but it is in a coma. The legacy of Sputnik and Gagarin is being dismantled by a combination of war, corruption, and neglect.
The "Mishap" at Baikonur is a physical manifestation of a program that has been hollowed out. Russia retains the ability to launch brute-force military satellites and threaten nuclear annihilation, but its days as a pioneering space explorer are over. The world is moving on; Russia is struggling simply to leave the ground.
Key Statistics (as of Dec 1, 2025)
| Metric | Status | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Crewed Launch Capability | SUSPENDED (Site 31/6 Damaged) | 📉 Critical |
| Heavy Lift Capability | Angara A5 (Testing, Unreliable) | ↔️ Stalled |
| ICBM Reliability | Failed (Sarmat Crater) | 📉 Negative |
| Scientific Missions | Luna-25 (Crashed), Luna-26 (Delayed) | 📉 Negative |
| Commercial Market Share | ~1% (Down from 15% in 2015) | 📉 Irrelevant |