Betting Buzz: NBA MVP Favorite Nikola Jokic Off the Board After Knee Injury
The NBA MVP race was turned upside down this week. Just as Nikola Jokic seemed to be runaway with a historic fourth MVP trophy, a scary scene in Miami has shifted the entire betting landscape. Following a knee injury on Monday night, sportsbooks have officially pulled the "Joker" off the board, leaving a massive vacuum at the top of the odds.
The Injury: What Happened to Jokic?
During the second quarter of the Denver Nuggets’ matchup against the Miami Heat on December 29, 2025, Jokic’s knee buckled awkwardly after he stepped on teammate Spencer Jones’ foot. The sight of the three-time MVP clutching his left knee sent shockwaves through the league.
The diagnostic news provided a mix of relief and disappointment:
The Diagnosis: A hyperextended left knee.
The Silver Lining: MRI results confirmed that his ligaments remain intact, meaning he avoided a season-ending catastrophe.
The Timeline: The Nuggets announced Jokic will be re-evaluated in four weeks.
Why Jokic is "Off the Board"
In previous eras, a one-month absence might not have disqualified a frontrunner. However, under the NBA’s current Collective Bargaining Agreement, players must appear in at least 65 games to be eligible for major awards like MVP or All-NBA.
Before the injury, Jokic had played every game of the season. But a four-week recovery period means he is projected to miss roughly 15 to 17 games.
The New MVP Favorites
With the "best player in the world" sidelined, the betting markets have recalibrated toward the remaining superstars. Here is how the board looks as of December 30, 2025:
| Player | Team | Current Odds |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | OKC Thunder | -450 |
| Luka Doncic | LA Lakers | +370 |
| Cade Cunningham | Detroit Pistons | +5000 |
| Jalen Brunson | NY Knicks | +6000 |
| Victor Wembanyama | SA Spurs | +6000 |
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA) is now the overwhelming favorite. Betting at -450 implies an 81.8% probability that he will win back-to-back MVPs. SGA is currently second in the league in scoring and has led the Thunder to the best record in the NBA.
Impact on the Denver Nuggets
The injury is a brutal blow to a Nuggets team already dealing with a depleted roster.With Aaron Gordon (hamstring) and Christian Braun (ankle) also sidelined, Jamal Murray is the lone remaining starter.
Bettors should keep an eye on:
Jonas Valanciunas: The veteran center will see a massive uptick in minutes and usage, making him a prime target for "Over" bets on points and rebounds.
Nuggets Win Totals: Denver has been outscored by 6.3 points per 100 possessions when Jokic is off the floor. Expect their upcoming spreads to shift significantly as they fight to stay afloat in a competitive Western Conference.
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